Will a Demographic Revolution Lead to a Democratic Revolution?

Volume 1|Issue 3| Winter 2013 |Theme of the Issue

Abstract

What are the links between demography and democracy? British historian Laurence Stone stated in an article from 1969 that there was a causative relationship between education and revolution. In his view, political upheaval began when the proportion of educated males reached 50 percent. Does this conclusion, reached more than four decades ago, apply to the Arab uprisings that stormed through the region at the beginning of 2011? There are many elements in the Arab world in the first decade of the twenty-first century that are similar to what happened in the world in the 1960s, specifically in terms of the rise in levels of education and the appearance of a youth bulge. These educational and demographic factors have contributed to push social relations towards a form of political instability, arising in essence from the demographic-economic imbalance.

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Researcher at the National Institute for Demographic Studies, Paris.

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