Demography and Conflicts in the context of Israel/Palestine. Forecasts for the future

​The subject of demographic conflict in Palestine has recently received additional momentum after the January 2013 Knesset elections in Israel, when far right and settler’s parties, with annexing views on the remains of Palestine (habayit ha yehudi), fared better than other parties. Claims for a one-state, rather than two-state, solution are no longer muted but openly declared. This analysis reviews the demographic forecasts and most recent demographic trends in Palestine under the current political context. Israel’s population policy, historically based on Jewish immigration to Israel, now uses fertility as the primary asset to reinforce the Jewish population, to the detriment of the Palestinians. Against this backdrop, this paper analyzes the fertility trends of the Jewish population, which has been significantly increasing over the last few decades, whilst Palestinian fertility rates have been relatively declining. The paper focuses specifically on demographic trends in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, where the settlers are gaining an advantage in the “war of cradles,” and in terms of net immigration, over the Palestinian residents, as well as trends in Palestinian Galilee, which could potentially become a new area of colonization according to the orientations of the new government. Considering present demographic conditions, the paper presents the likely evolution of the different population groups in the next 35 years throughout historical Palestine, the West Bank, East Jerusalem, the Gaza strip, in the Galilee, and in the Negev. 

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​The subject of demographic conflict in Palestine has recently received additional momentum after the January 2013 Knesset elections in Israel, when far right and settler’s parties, with annexing views on the remains of Palestine (habayit ha yehudi), fared better than other parties. Claims for a one-state, rather than two-state, solution are no longer muted but openly declared. This analysis reviews the demographic forecasts and most recent demographic trends in Palestine under the current political context. Israel’s population policy, historically based on Jewish immigration to Israel, now uses fertility as the primary asset to reinforce the Jewish population, to the detriment of the Palestinians. Against this backdrop, this paper analyzes the fertility trends of the Jewish population, which has been significantly increasing over the last few decades, whilst Palestinian fertility rates have been relatively declining. The paper focuses specifically on demographic trends in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, where the settlers are gaining an advantage in the “war of cradles,” and in terms of net immigration, over the Palestinian residents, as well as trends in Palestinian Galilee, which could potentially become a new area of colonization according to the orientations of the new government. Considering present demographic conditions, the paper presents the likely evolution of the different population groups in the next 35 years throughout historical Palestine, the West Bank, East Jerusalem, the Gaza strip, in the Galilee, and in the Negev. 

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